European Union’s Grid Transformation: How Anticipatory Investments Are Paving the Way for a Decarbonized and Resilient Energy Future
欧盟电网转型计划：前瞻性投资如何为脱碳且具韧性的能源未来铺平道路
Introduction
On June 2nd, the European Union Commission has issued a “Guidance Document on Anticipatory Grid Investments” for the development of forward-looking electricity networks. As a follow-up to the 2023 “EU Action Plan for Grids” and the “Action Plan for Affordable Energy”, this document is intended to offer investment-oriented guidance for European power grids, with the goal of ensuring that future power grids can adapt to upcoming challenges and deliver more reliable, cost-effective, and eco-friendly electricity to the EU.
It highlights significant financial needs: an estimated €730 billion for distribution grid developments and €477 billion for transmission grid projects by 2040. It targets EU member states, national regulatory authorities, and transmission/distribution system operators, offering practical guidance to help them foster conditions where grid investments align with future demands. Meanwhile, it seeks to ensure affordability for consumers and maintain industrial competitiveness in the EU.
引言
6月2日，欧盟委员会发布了《前瞻性电网投资指导文件》，旨在推动前瞻性电网的发展。作为2023年《欧盟电网行动计划》和《可负担能源行动计划》的后续文件，该指导文件旨在为欧洲电网提供以投资为导向的指引，确保未来电网能够应对即将到来的挑战，并为欧盟提供更可靠、更经济且更环保的电力。
文件强调了巨大的资金需求：预计到2040年，配电网发展需投入7300亿欧元，输电网项目需投入4770亿欧元。其目标对象为欧盟成员国、国家监管机构及输配电系统运营商，通过提供实用指导，帮助其营造有利条件，使电网投资与未来需求相匹配。同时，该文件力求保障消费者用电成本的可负担性，并维持欧盟的工业竞争力。
A Closer Look into the Guidance Document
The European Commission’s guidance document on anticipatory investments aims to support Member States, national regulatory authorities (NRAs), and transmission/distribution system operators (TSOs/DSOs) in fostering proactive grid investments.
Definition and examples for Anticipatory Investments
Definition: Anticipatory investments address network development needs beyond the ones related to existing grid connection requests by generation or demand projects. They should be based on the medium and long-term needs identified in the network development plans both at national and EU level. They should also support achieving EU energy and climate goals.
Examples of anticipatory investments include:
Onshore Grid Strengthening:
• Construct new substations and other facilities, and adopt oversized designs (e.g., expanding substation, transformer, or line capacities) to accommodate expected changes in supply and demand, especially in areas prioritizing renewable energy development.
Future-oriented Offshore Project Design:
• Reserve space for expansion or directly design offshore substations with larger capacities, enabling seamless connection to planned interconnectors or new wind farms. This proactive approach significantly reduces costs compared to building additional substations later.
Redundant Cable Tubes and Line Provision:
• Pre-lay spare cable tubes in trenches to avoid future construction costs and permit issues. Design transmission lines with double-circuit infrastructure (initially operating with a single circuit), ensuring easy scalability.
Enhancing Long-Term System Resilience:
• Undertake grid developments to boost climate adaptability, such as reinforcing transmission lines against extreme weather, safeguarding the grid’s stability over the long term.
The guidance document issued by the European Union this time puts forward specific action suggestions from three major aspects: network planning, regulatory review, and cost allocation and incentive measures.
深入解读指导文件
欧盟委员会关于前瞻性投资的指导文件旨在支持成员国、国家监管机构（NRAs）及输配电系统运营商（TSOs/DSOs）推动主动性电网投资。
前瞻性投资的定义与示例
定义：前瞻性投资旨在满足超出当前发电或用电项目并网请求相关的电网发展需求。此类投资应基于国家及欧盟层面电网发展规划中识别的中长期需求，并应支持实现欧盟能源与气候目标。
前瞻性投资示例包括：
陆上电网强化：
• 建设新变电站及其他设施，并采用超大容量设计（如扩大变电站、变压器或线路容量），以适应供需预期变化，尤其是在优先发展可再生能源的区域。
面向未来的海上项目设计：
• 预留扩建空间或直接设计更大容量的海上变电站，确保与规划中的互联电网或新风电场无缝连接。与后期增建变电站相比，这种前瞻性方式可显著降低成本。
冗余电缆管道与线路配置：
• 在沟渠中预先铺设备用电缆管道，避免未来施工成本与许可问题；采用双回路基础设施设计输电线路（初期仅单回路运行），确保可轻松扩容。
增强系统长期韧性：
• 开展电网升级以提升气候适应性，例如加固输电线路以抵御极端天气，保障电网长期稳定。
此次欧盟发布的指导文件从三大维度提出具体行动建议：电网规划、监管审查，以及成本分摊与激励措施。
Network Planning
Current Challenges: Europe’s existing grid system, largely built in the 1970s and 1980s, struggles to adapt to the rapid deployment of renewable energy and the complexities of new electricity demands from electrification (e.g., electromobility, heating, hydrogen production). Grid development lead times are longer than those for generation and demand assets, causing significant connection delays. There’s also a lack of coordinated scenario-building between Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Distribution System Operators (DSOs), which can lead to network bottlenecks.
Improvements:
Scenario-Driven NDPs:
• National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs) and Member States should ensure Network Development Plans (NDPs) are based on scenarios of future development.
• These scenarios should clearly explain the link between expected future generation and consumption and the proposed grid development.
• Scenarios need to be aligned with national energy and climate goals and be cross-sectoral.
• NDPs should use multiple scenarios and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties.
Integrating Anticipatory Investments:
• Grid operators should include anticipatory investments in NDPs as the primary tool for planning and approval.
• When planning new investments, consider solutions that allow for potential future capacity increases (e.g., more space for substations, larger pylons, or transformers).
Planning Coordination:
• Further efforts are needed to coordinate among respective layers of network planning (EU, transmission, distribution).
• Ensure alignment in the timing of NDPs and coordination of inputs (scenarios) across planning levels
电网规划
当前挑战：欧洲现有电网系统大多建于20世纪70至80年代，难以适应可再生能源的快速部署，以及电气化（如电动交通、电供暖、绿氢生产）带来的新型电力需求复杂性。电网开发周期长于发电和用电设施，导致并网延迟问题突出。此外，输电系统运营商（TSOs）与配电系统运营商（DSOs）之间缺乏协同场景构建，可能引发电网瓶颈。
改进措施：
场景驱动的电网发展规划（NDPs）
• 国家监管机构（NRAs）和成员国应确保电网发展规划基于未来发展场景制定。
• 这些场景需清晰阐释预期未来发电与用电需求，与拟议电网建设之间的关联。
• 场景需与国家能源及气候目标一致，并具备跨行业属性。
• 电网发展规划应采用多场景分析与敏感性分析，以应对不确定性因素。
整合前瞻性投资
• 电网运营商应将前瞻性投资纳入电网发展规划，作为规划与审批的核心工具。
• 规划新投资时，需考虑可支持未来容量扩容的方案（如预留更多变电站空间、采用更大规格的 pylons 或变压器）。
规划协同
• 需进一步强化电网规划各层级（欧盟、输电、配电）间的协同。
• 确保电网发展规划的时间节点同步，并在各规划层级间协调输入条件（如场景设定）。
Regulatory Scrutiny
Current Challenges: Anticipatory investments are often not planned or included in NDPs due to the presumption they would be dismissed during the scrutiny process. Assessment practices by NRAs can hinder these investments if based on different assumptions or timelines than those used for network plans, especially regarding decarbonization objectives and renewable energy integration.
Improvements:
Transparent Cost Approval Rules:
• NRAs should introduce clear upfront rules for the cost approval of anticipatory investments.
• Evaluate potential welfare losses from “too early” vs. “too late” project implementation in the investment approval process.
• Ensure equal treatment of anticipatory investments with other grid investments, while accounting for their specific character and risk distribution.
Post-Approval Certainty:
• Once projects in NDPs or investment plans are positively assessed and justified, their incurred costs should be administratively unchallenged ex post.
• Remuneration for approved assets should not be retroactively questioned, for instance, based on initially low utilization rates.
Efficiency Benchmarking & Depreciation:
• Efficiency benchmarking practices used by NRAs should account for anticipatory investments and not be based solely on historical information or short-term effectiveness.
• NRAs can adjust depreciation profiles (e.g., backloading depreciation or postponing its start) to reduce the short-term impact of anticipatory investment costs on tariffs.
Removing Obstacles:
• Remove investment caps applied by NRAs and delays in cost recognition if they hinder anticipatory investments.
监管审查
当前挑战：由于业界推测前瞻性投资在审查流程中可能被否决，因此这类投资往往未被规划或纳入电网发展规划（NDPs）。若国家监管机构（NRAs）的评估实践所基于的假设或时间线与电网规划不同（尤其是在脱碳目标和可再生能源整合方面），可能会阻碍此类投资。
改进措施：
透明的成本审批规则
• 国家监管机构应针对前瞻性投资的成本审批制定明确的前置规则。
• 在投资审批过程中，评估“过早”与“过晚”实施项目可能导致的福利损失。
• 确保前瞻性投资与其他电网投资获得同等对待，同时考虑其特殊性和风险分配。
审批后确定性
• 一旦电网发展规划或投资计划中的项目通过评估并证明其合理性，其产生的成本在行政层面不得事后质疑。
• 已批准资产的收益不得追溯质疑（例如，不得基于初期利用率低为由）。
效率基准与折旧
• 国家监管机构采用的效率基准实践应考虑前瞻性投资，不应仅基于历史信息或短期效益。
• 监管机构可调整折旧模式（如延期折旧或推迟折旧起始时间），以降低前瞻性投资成本对短期电价的影响。
消除障碍
• 若国家监管机构设置的投资上限或成本确认延迟阻碍了前瞻性投资，则应取消相关限制。
Cost Allocation and Incentive Measures
Current Challenges: Increased electricity grid investment levels, including anticipatory investments, challenge the ability to maintain affordable bills for consumers. System operators need to raise significant new equity and debt, requiring competitive remuneration and predictability about future earnings to facilitate access to financial markets.
Improvements:
Grid Fee Design:
• Network tariffs should reflect both short-term (e.g., network losses, congestion costs) and long-term costs (e.g., planned infrastructure development investment costs).
• Connection charges can be designed to incentivize system-friendly behavior, such as providing lower (shallow) connection fees in areas with anticipatory investments.
• Connection charges in anticipatory investment areas should consider future new connections and avoid over-burdening early consumers with high fees.
Financing and Risk Mitigation:
• Member States can utilize public budgets to lower network charges or use congestion income to finance anticipatory investments.
• State loans on infrastructure development, paid back on actual asset utilization, could be an option.
• State guarantees could contribute to better financing of anticipatory investments.
• Consider two-step cost approval processes for major network development projects (e.g., regulatory approval for pre-construction, then for construction once confirmed).
Connection Request Rules:
• Introduce clear rules on connection requests, setting maximum periods for connection with clear obligations for both grid operators and users, to avoid underutilization of assets.
成本分摊与激励措施
当前挑战：包括前瞻性投资在内的电网投资规模扩大，对维持消费者用电成本的可负担性构成挑战。系统运营商需筹集大量新增股权和债务资金，这要求具备有竞争力的收益回报及未来盈利的可预测性，以顺利进入金融市场。
改进措施：
电网费用设计
• 电网电价应同时反映短期成本（如电网损耗、拥堵成本）和长期成本（如规划中的基础设施建设投资成本）。
• 可将并网费用设计为激励系统友好型行为的工具，例如在前瞻性投资区域提供更低（更优惠）的并网费用。
• 前瞻性投资区域的并网费用应考虑未来新增并网需求，避免高额费用给早期消费者带来过重负担。
融资与风险缓释
• 成员国可利用公共预算降低电网费用，或通过拥堵收入为前瞻性投资提供资金支持。
• 可考虑提供基于实际资产利用率偿还的基础设施开发国家贷款。
• 国家担保可助力前瞻性投资获得更优融资条件。
• 对重大电网发展项目可考虑分两步的成本审批流程（如施工前先获监管批准，确认后再批准施工阶段）。
并网申请规则
• 引入明确的并网申请规则，设定最长并网期限并明确电网运营商和用户的双向义务，避免资产闲置。
Conclusion
The EU Commission Notice on Anticipatory Grid Investments represents a pivotal step in the European Union’s commitment to achieving a decarbonized and resilient energy future. By integrating strategic network planning, streamlined regulatory scrutiny, and optimized cost allocation and incentive measures, this guidance provides a comprehensive framework for developing forward-looking electricity networks.
Stakeholders across the energy sector are encouraged to engage with these initiatives to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this necessary evolution of grid infrastructure.
结论
欧盟委员会《前瞻性电网投资指导文件》是欧盟致力于实现脱碳且具韧性的能源未来的关键一步。该指导文件通过整合战略性电网规划、简化监管审查，以及优化成本分摊与激励措施，为发展前瞻性电网提供了全面框架。
鼓励能源领域各利益相关方参与这些举措，以充分利用电网基础设施这一必要变革所带来的机遇。
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