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2025年会是中国碳排放达峰年吗?

Progress, New Regulations, and Policies for a Green Future迈向绿色未来的新规章和政策

China, long a major player in the global climate arena, has embarked on a strategic path to reach carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This journey reflects the country’s commitment not only to sustainable economic growth but also to taking a leadership role in combating the climate crisis.

Through a combination of innovative policies, regulatory reforms, and technological investments, China is working to transform its energy and industrial landscape, gradually reducing its reliance on fossil fuels. This newsletter explores the progress made, the challenges that remain and how can facilitate this transition.

中国长期作为全球气候治理的重要参与者,已走上了一条2030年实现碳达峰2060年实现碳中和的战略之路。这一旅程不仅反映了中国对可持续经济增长的承诺,也体现了中国在克服气候危机方面发挥领导作用的决心。

通过创新政策、监管改革和技术投资相结合的方式,中国正在努力改变其能源和工业格局,逐渐减少对化石能源的依赖。本则通讯将探讨中国取得的进展、仍面临的危机以及如何促进这一转型。

Achieved Results and Growing Optimism   取得的成果日益乐观

One of China’s major achievements is the deceleration of carbon emissions, accompanied by encouraging signs of an imminent peak. According to a recent report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), 44% of climate experts believe that China will reach its CO₂ emissions peak by 2025, five years ahead of the stated 2030 goal.

This acceleration is due to a combination of targeted policies, including the reduction of coal dependency, which still represents 80% of the country’s fossil fuel emissions.

China already plans to reduce its coal consumption after 2026, but this cut will surely have to be quite drastic and rapid if China wants to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target. But leaders’ concern about energy security, which intensified after several parts of China suffered blackouts in 2021 and 2022 and after the war in Ukraine destabilized oil supplies, had considerable consequences in the process of phasing out coal.

Nevertheless, several energy experts argue that greater diversity in China’s energy mix and improvements to renewable energy infrastructure are effective ways to ensure energy security, without relying on coal-fired power plants.

Nevertheless, 36% of surveyed experts believe that coal consumption has already peaked. This reflects growing confidence in China’s ability to shift to cleaner energy sources, supported by increasing investments in renewable infrastructure.

In parallel, the contribution of clean energy to China’s economy is significant. In 2023, sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries – known as the “new three” – generated over $194 billion, representing a substantial share of GDP growth. These sectors are driving the energy transition, fostering innovation and creating skilled jobs.

中国的主要成就之一是碳排放的减速,这对即将到来的碳达峰是令人鼓舞的迹象。根据能源与清洁空气研究中心(CREA)最近的一份报告,44%的气候专家认为中国的二氧化碳排放量将在2025年达到峰值,比2030年的既定目标提前了5年。

这种加速是由于有针对性的政策相结合,包括减少对煤炭的依赖,煤炭仍然占中国化石燃料排放量的80%。

中国已经计划在2026年后减少煤炭消耗,但如果中国想实现2060年的碳中和目标,这一削减必定非常剧烈和迅速。但中国领导人对能源安全的担忧在逐步淘汰煤炭的过程中产生了相当大的影响,尤其是在2021年和2022年中国部分地区遭遇停电,以及乌克兰战争破坏了石油供应之后,这种担忧加剧了。

尽管如此,一些能源专家认为,在不依赖燃煤电厂的情况下,提高中国能源结构的多样性和改善可再生能源基础设施是保障能源安全的有效方式。

尽管如此,36%的受访专家认为煤炭消费已经达到顶峰。这反映出随着对可再生基础设施投资的增加,投资者对中国转向清洁能源的能力越来越有信心。

与此同时,清洁能源对中国经济的贡献也是显著的。2023年,被称为“新三样”的太阳能电池板、电动汽车和电池等行业的产值超过1940亿美元,占GDP增长的很大一部分。这些行业正在推动能源转型,促进创新和创造技术岗位。

New Regulations and Strategic Policies

1. The First Energy Law: A Milestone

A cornerstone of China’s strategy is the National People’s Congress approval of its first national energy law, which will come into effect in 2025. This regulation provides a comprehensive framework for managing energy resources and accelerating the country’s green transition. The new law includes nine sections, covering general provisions, energy planning, energy development and utilization, energy market system, energy reserves and emergency response, energy science and technology innovation, supervision and management, legal liabilities, and supplementary provisions.  

Key provisions include: 

– Priority for Renewable Energy: The law encourages the use of hydroelectric, solar, wind, and hydrogen energy, gradually reducing dependence on fossil fuels. 

– Carbon Control System: It introduces a mechanism to regulate both the intensity and total volume of CO₂ emissions, promoting a balanced approach to emission reductions. 

– Green Electricity Certification: This system aims to encourage the use of renewable energy by businesses and institutions, rewarding more sustainable choices.

The drafting of the Energy Law began in 2006, with multiple drafts released for public comment and three major revisions made before final approval.

2. Green Transition Guidelines 

Published in November 2024, these guidelines represent an important step toward emission reductions and energy efficiency improvements. The 17-point guidelines, which were jointly issued by six departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, cover a wide range of aspects including elevating the security and reliability of renewable energy replacement, accelerating the replacement in key fields such as industry and transportation, and actively launching innovative trials and enhancing guarantees. 

Key goals include: 

– Increase in Renewable Consumption: Achieving more than 1.5 billion metric tons of coal equivalent by 2030. 

– Smart Infrastructure: Investing in digitalized power grids and electric vehicle charging stations to support a more resilient and distributed energy system. 

– Development of Advanced Technologies: Integrating technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence to optimize renewable energy management and improve system efficiency.

The main targets are that by 2030, China should achieve “remarkable results” in the green transition in all areas of economic and social development, and then, by 2035, a green, low-carbon and circular development economic system and the goal of Beautiful China should be basically achieved.

3. Carbon Market Expansion 

With the adoption of the 6.4 mechanism of the Paris Agreement, China’s carbon market is gaining global relevance. This trading system allows China to: 

– Actively participate in international carbon credit trading, supporting global emission reductions. 

– Attract foreign investments to finance green projects. 

– Align with international standards to improve transparency and credibility.

This internationalization not only strengthens China’s position as a global leader in green finance but also offers significant opportunities for European companies looking to enter the Chinese market.

新法规和战略政策

1.第一部能源法:一大里程碑

中国能源战略的一大基石是全国人大批准了第一部国家能源法,该法将于2025年生效。该条例为管理能源和加速国家的绿色转型提供了一个全面的框架。新能源法包括总则、能源规划、能源开发利用、能源市场体系、能源储备与应急、能源科技创新、监督管理、法律责任、附则等9个部分。

主要条款包括:

-优先发展可再生能源:法律鼓励使用水电、太阳能、风能和氢能,逐步减少对化石燃料的依赖。

-碳控制体系:引入二氧化碳排放强度和总量调控机制,促进平衡减排。

-绿色电力认证:该制度旨在鼓励企业和机构使用可再生能源,奖励更可持续的选择。

《能源法》的起草工作始于2006年,先后发布了多份征求意见稿,并进行了三次重大修改。

2.全面绿色转型的意见

意见于2024年11月发布,这是朝着减排和提高能源效率迈出的重要一步。由国家发展改革委等六部门联合发布的17点意见,涵盖了提高可再生能源替代的安全性和可靠性,加快工业、交通等重点领域的替代,积极开展创新试验,加强保障等广泛方面。

主要目标包括:

-增强可再生能源的消耗:到2030年达到超过15亿吨煤当量。

-智能基础设施:投资数字化电网和电动汽车充电桩,以支持更具弹性和广泛分布的能源系统。

-先进技术开发:整合区块链、人工智能等技术,优化可再生能源管理,提高系统效率。

主要目标是,到2030年,中国经济社会发展各领域绿色转型取得“显著成效”,到2035年,绿色、低碳、循环发展的经济体系和美丽中国的目标基本实现。

3.碳市场的扩张

随着《巴黎协定》6.4机制的采用,中国碳市场正与世界相关。这一贸易体系允许中国:

-积极参与国际碳信用交易,支持全球减排。

-吸引外资为绿色项目融资

-与国际标准保持一致,提高透明度和可信度

这种国际化不仅加强了中国作为全球绿色金融领导者的地位,也为寻求进入中国市场的欧洲公司提供了重要的机会。

Persistent Challenges and Potential Solutions

Despite positive outcomes, China faces several challenges in maintaining momentum for its green transition:

1. Dependence on Coal

Coal remains a significant part of the energy mix. To meet its climate goals, China will need to further invest in renewable energy infrastructure and develop technologies that can replace coal while ensuring energy security.

2. Market Supervision and Regulation

The effectiveness of the carbon market requires robust monitoring systems to ensure transparency and effectiveness. The creation of a national emissions database is a crucial step, but additional technological investments are needed to strengthen supervision.

3. Industrial Transition

Key sectors like steel and cement, which are highly energy-intensive, need targeted policies to reduce their carbon intensity. Incentives for adopting clean technologies and modernizing industrial infrastructures will be essential to reduce emissions in these sectors.

持续的挑战和潜在的解决方案

尽管取得了积极成果,但中国在保持绿色转型势头方面仍面临一些挑战:

1. 对煤炭的依赖

煤炭仍然是能源结构的重要组成部分。为了实现其气候目标,中国将需要进一步投资可再生能源基础设施,并开发能够在确保能源安全的同时取代煤炭的技术。

2. 市场监管

碳市场的有效性需要强有力的监测系统来确保透明度和有效性。建立国家排放数据库是关键的一步,但需要额外的技术投资来加强监督。

3. 工业转型

钢铁和水泥等高耗能的关键行业需要有针对性的政策来降低其碳强度。鼓励采用清洁技术和使工业基础设施现代化对于减少这些部门的排放至关重要。

Global Opportunities and Impact

China’s green transition model offers valuable lessons for other emerging and developed economies. The implementation of innovative policies and the integration of advanced technologies have the potential to: 

– Drastically Reduce Global Emissions: Contributing to achieving global climate targets. 

– Stimulate Innovation: Strengthening the development of cutting-edge technologies such as green hydrogen and energy storage systems. 

– Promote International Collaboration: Encouraging synergies between countries to accelerate the transition to a global low-carbon economy.

全球机遇和影响

中国的绿色转型模式为其他新兴和发达经济体提供了宝贵的经验。创新政策的实施和先进技术的整合有可能:

-大幅减少全球排放:有助于实现全球气候目标。

-激发创新:加强绿色氢能、储能等前沿技术开发。

-促进国际合作:鼓励各国协同合作,加快向全球低碳经济转型。

CNEUCN’s Role in the Green Transition

CNEUCN is positioned as a key facilitator for collaboration between Chinese and European companies. The organization offers strategic support to navigate complex regulations and leverage the opportunities presented by new markets and technologies.

– Regulatory Consultancy: We help Chinese and European companies understand and navigate the other country regulatory landscape, maximizing investment opportunities. 

– Promotion of Technological Partnerships: We organize events and workshops to foster the development of joint innovative solutions. 

– Carbon Market Support: We provide tools and knowledge to help businesses effectively participate in China’s carbon emission trading system.

With a pragmatic and collaborative approach, CNEUCN continues to support companies in their transition to a sustainable future, promoting economic growth and environmental protection across both continents.

CNEUCN在绿色转型中的作用

CNEUCN是中国和欧洲公司之间合作的关键促进者,该组织提供战略支持,以应对复杂的规则,并利用新市场和新技术带来的机会。

-监管咨询:我们帮助中国和欧洲公司了解和运用对方国家的监管环境,最大限度地扩大投资机会。

-促进技术伙伴关系:我们举办活动和研讨会,以促进共同创新解决方案的发展。

-碳市场支持:我们提供工具和知识,帮助企业有效参与中国的碳排放交易体系。

CNEUCN将以务实和合作的方式,继续支持公司向可持续发展的未来过渡,促进两大地区的经济增长和环境保护。

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