Key Changes to Address Carbon Leakage Risks in Energy-Intensive Industries
应对高能耗行业碳泄漏风险的关键变化
Introduction
On 23 December 2025, the European Commission adopted amendments to the Guidelines on certain State aid measures in the context of the post-2021 EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (hereafter referred to as the ETS State Aid Guidelines). The revision comes against the backdrop of persistently high carbon prices under the EU ETS, which have significantly increased indirect emission costs—particularly electricity-related costs—for energy-intensive industries across the EU.
As carbon prices have risen, concerns over carbon leakage have intensified. Industries exposed to international competition face growing pressure that could undermine both industrial competitiveness and the effectiveness of EU climate policy. The updated guidelines aim to recalibrate existing compensation mechanisms, ensuring that they remain fit for purpose while continuing to incentivise decarbonisation and long-term emissions reductions.
引言
2025 年 12 月 23 日，欧洲委员会通过了对《后 2021 年欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）背景下某些国家援助措施指南》（以下简称“ETS 国家援助指南”）的修订。此次修订的背景是欧盟 ETS 下碳价长期维持在高位，显著推高了间接排放成本——尤其是电力相关成本——并对欧盟范围内的高能耗行业产生了明显影响。
随着碳价不断上升，对碳泄漏的担忧日益加剧。暴露于国际竞争中的行业正面临不断加大的压力，这不仅可能削弱工业竞争力，也可能影响欧盟气候政策的有效性。更新后的指南旨在对现有补偿机制进行再校准，确保其在当前环境下仍然适用，同时继续激励脱碳进程与长期减排目标的实现。
Key Updates in the ETS State Aid Guidelines
The revised ETS State Aid Guidelines introduce a series of targeted adjustments intended to reflect evolving market conditions and industrial risk profiles:
Expanded sectoral eligibility
The list of sectors eligible for compensation for indirect ETS costs has been broadened. Newly included sectors are those assessed as facing heightened carbon leakage risks due to increased electricity prices linked to carbon costs.
The expansion reflects changes in industrial structures and global trade exposure since the original post-2021 guidelines were adopted.
Higher compensation intensity
For sectors already covered, the maximum proportion of eligible indirect emission costs that Member States may compensate has been increased. This adjustment recognises that earlier compensation levels may no longer sufficiently address cost pressures under current ETS price levels.
Increased flexibility for Member States
Member States are permitted to notify additional sectors not explicitly listed in the guidelines. Such inclusion must be supported by evidence demonstrating a genuine and measurable risk of carbon leakage.
This approach allows national authorities to respond to sector-specific developments while remaining subject to Commission oversight.
Stronger linkage to decarbonisation
Large beneficiaries of ETS-related state aid are expected to contribute to the green transition.
This may include investments in:
- Energy-efficiency improvements
- Low-carbon or renewable electricity sourcing
- Emissions-reduction measures aligned with EU climate objectives
Updated technical parameters
Emission factors and geographic data used in compensation calculations have been updated for the 2026–2030 period. These updates aim to better align compensation mechanisms with current electricity market conditions and emissions data.
ETS 国家援助指南的关键更新
修订后的 ETS 国家援助指南引入了一系列有针对性的调整，以反映不断变化的市场条件和工业风险特征：
扩大行业适用范围
符合间接 ETS 成本补偿条件的行业名单已被扩大。新增纳入的行业被评估为由于与碳成本相关的电力价格上涨而面临更高的碳泄漏风险。
此次扩展反映了自原后 2021 年指南通过以来，产业结构和全球贸易暴露程度所发生的变化。
提高补偿强度
对于已被覆盖的行业，成员国可补偿的合格间接排放成本的最高比例已被提高。这一调整认可了在当前 ETS 价格水平下，原有的补偿水平可能已不足以应对成本压力。
提高成员国灵活性
成员国被允许申报指南中未明确列出的其他行业。此类纳入必须有证据支持，证明其面临真实且可量化的碳泄漏风险。
这一做法使国家主管部门能够针对具体行业的发展作出回应，同时仍需接受欧盟委员会的监管。
加强与脱碳的联动
ETS 相关国家援助的主要受益方被期望为绿色转型作出贡献。
这可能包括对以下领域的投资：
- 能源效率提升
- 低碳或可再生电力来源
- 符合欧盟气候目标的减排措施
更新技术参数
用于补偿计算的排放因子和地理数据已针对 2026–2030 年周期进行了更新。这些更新旨在使补偿机制更好地与当前电力市场状况和排放数据保持一致。
Policy Background and Rationale
The EU ETS remains the cornerstone of the EU’s climate policy framework, placing a cap on emissions while allowing market forces to determine the price of carbon. However, this mechanism also generates indirect costs for electricity-intensive industries, as carbon prices are partially passed through into power prices.
Key policy drivers behind the guideline revision include:
- Sustained increases in ETS allowance prices
Carbon prices have remained at historically high levels in recent years. This has amplified cost pressures for electricity-intensive sectors beyond levels anticipated when the original post-2021 guidelines were designed.
- Rising carbon leakage concerns
Energy-intensive industries exposed to global competition may struggle to pass increased costs on to customers. Without mitigation measures, there is a risk that production may shift outside the EU, weakening both economic resilience and environmental outcomes.
- Need to preserve climate ambition
The Commission has emphasised that compensation mechanisms must not dilute incentives to reduce emissions. State aid is therefore positioned as a transitional support tool rather than a permanent offset to carbon pricing.
The revised ETS State Aid Guidelines reflect an effort to reconcile these competing objectives within a more challenging carbon price environment.
政策背景与修订动因
欧盟 ETS 仍然是欧盟气候政策框架的基石，其通过设定排放上限并允许市场力量决定碳价来发挥作用。然而，该机制也会为电力密集型行业带来间接成本，因为碳价会部分传导至电力价格之中。
推动此次指南修订的关键政策因素包括：
- ETS 配额价格持续上涨
近年来，碳价一直维持在历史高位。这使电力密集型行业面临的成本压力超出了原后 2021 年指南制定时的预期。
- 碳泄漏风险上升
暴露于全球竞争中的高能耗行业可能难以将增加的成本转嫁给客户。在缺乏缓解措施的情况下，存在生产活动向欧盟以外地区转移的风险，从而削弱经济韧性和环境成效。
- 维护气候雄心的需要
欧洲委员会强调，补偿机制不得削弱减排激励。因此，国家援助被定位为一种过渡性支持工具，而非对碳定价的永久性抵消。
修订后的 ETS 国家援助指南体现了在更加严峻的碳价环境下，协调上述相互竞争目标的努力。
Implications for Energy-Intensive Industries in the EU
The updated guidelines are expected to shape how EU energy-intensive industries manage both short-term cost pressures and long-term decarbonisation strategies:
Short-term cost stabilisation
- Expanded eligibility and higher compensation ceilings may help reduce volatility in electricity-related costs.
- This can improve predictability for sectors operating with high energy intensity and thin margins.
Clearer expectations for transition
- Compensation is increasingly linked to decarbonisation commitments.
- Beneficiary firms are expected to align cost relief with investments that support emissions reductions and energy-system transformation.
National implementation dynamics
- Greater flexibility for Member States may result in differentiated compensation schemes across the EU.
- At the same time, Commission oversight seeks to ensure consistency with EU competition and climate policy principles.
Overall, the revised framework reinforces the EU’s intention to maintain carbon pricing as a central policy instrument while addressing legitimate competitiveness concerns
对欧盟高能耗行业的影响
更新后的指南预计将影响欧盟高能耗行业应对短期成本压力和制定长期脱碳战略的方式：
短期成本稳定
- 扩大的适用范围和更高的补偿上限有助于降低电力相关成本的波动性。
- 这将提升高能耗、低利润率行业的可预期性。
更明确的转型预期
- 补偿机制日益与脱碳承诺挂钩。
- 受益企业需将成本缓解与支持减排和能源系统转型的投资相结合。
国家层面的实施差异
- 成员国更大的灵活性可能导致欧盟内部补偿方案的差异化。
- 同时，欧盟委员会的监管旨在确保其符合欧盟竞争和气候政策原则。
总体而言，修订后的框架强化了欧盟将碳定价作为核心政策工具的立场，同时回应了合理的竞争力关切。
Implications for China
Although the ETS State Aid Guidelines are an internal EU policy instrument, their effects extend beyond Europe—particularly for Chinese companies closely integrated into EU-oriented value chains:
Changing competitive conditions
Enhanced compensation for EU industries may partially offset carbon-related electricity costs. This could narrow cost differentials between EU producers and non-EU suppliers, including Chinese exporters.
Stronger carbon signals along supply chains
As compensation is increasingly tied to decarbonisation, EU firms may impose higher requirements on suppliers regarding:
- Carbon transparency
- Emissions reporting
- Energy efficiency and low-carbon inputs
Interaction with the EU’s broader climate policy framework
While distinct from instruments such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the revised guidelines reinforce the EU’s integrated approach to carbon leakage. Together, these measures shape how carbon costs, competitiveness, and trade considerations interact.
Implications for low-carbon technology demand
EU firms encouraged to invest in efficiency and clean electricity may increase demand for low-carbon technologies and solutions. This may create opportunities for Chinese companies capable of demonstrating credible low-carbon performance.
Policy reference value
The EU’s approach illustrates how carbon pricing can be combined with targeted, conditional industrial support. This may offer reference insights for China’s own industrial decarbonisation and market-based policy design.
对中国的影响
尽管 ETS 国家援助指南属于欧盟内部政策工具，但其影响已超出欧洲范围——尤其是对深度嵌入欧盟导向型价值链的中国企业而言：
竞争条件的变化
对欧盟企业的补偿加强，可能在一定程度上抵消与碳相关的电力成本。这可能缩小欧盟生产商与非欧盟供应商（包括中国出口商）之间的成本差距。
供应链中的更强碳信号
随着补偿与脱碳要求的联动增强，欧盟企业可能对供应商提出更高要求，包括：
- 碳透明度
- 排放报告
- 能源效率和低碳投入
与欧盟更广泛气候政策框架的互动
尽管与碳边境调节机制（CBAM）等工具有所区别，修订后的指南强化了欧盟应对碳泄漏的综合政策路径。这些措施共同塑造了碳成本、竞争力和贸易因素之间的互动方式。
对低碳技术需求的影响
在鼓励效率提升和清洁电力投资的背景下，欧盟企业可能增加对低碳技术和解决方案的需求。这为能够证明其低碳绩效的中国企业创造了潜在机遇。
政策参考价值
欧盟的做法展示了如何将碳定价与有针对性、附带条件的产业支持相结合。这可为中国自身的产业脱碳和市场化政策设计提供参考。
Conclusion
The European Commission’s amendment of the ETS State Aid Guidelines reflects an evolving response to the challenges posed by sustained high carbon prices. By expanding sectoral coverage, increasing compensation intensity, and reinforcing decarbonisation conditions, the EU aims to mitigate carbon leakage risks while preserving the integrity of its climate policy framework.
For China and EU-linked supply chains, the revised guidelines underscore the growing interdependence between carbon policy, industrial competitiveness, and international trade. As climate regulation continues to shape global industrial dynamics, understanding such policy developments will be increasingly important for stakeholders engaged in economic and climate-related interactions with EU companies.
结论
欧洲委员会对 ETS 国家援助指南的修订，体现了其对长期高碳价所带来挑战的动态回应。通过扩大行业覆盖范围、提高补偿强度并强化脱碳条件，欧盟旨在降低碳泄漏风险，同时维护其气候政策框架的完整性。
对于中国及与欧盟相关的供应链而言，修订后的指南凸显了碳政策、产业竞争力与国际贸易之间日益增强的相互依存关系。随着气候监管持续塑造全球产业格局，理解此类政策发展对参与欧盟相关经济和气候互动的利益相关方而言将愈发重要。
EN