The world’s largest hydropower project reshapes China’s clean energy and regional development strategy
世界上最大的水电项目重塑了中国的清洁能源及区域发展战略
Introduction
China has begun constructing the Medog Hydropower Station on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet—set to become the largest hydropower project in the world. With a planned capacity of 60 GW and annual output of 300 billion kWh, the project is a milestone for renewable energy and a major step in China’s decarbonization strategy. Beyond energy production, it promises to deliver long-term economic benefits, strengthen infrastructure, and support industrial electrification. However, the project also raises ecological, social, and geopolitical questions due to its location in a fragile Himalayan ecosystem and its impact on downstream countries.
引言
中国已开始在西藏雅鲁藏布江上建设墨脱水电站，该电站有望成为全球最大的水电项目。该项目计划装机容量为60吉瓦，年发电量达3000亿千瓦时，是可再生能源领域的里程碑，也是中国脱碳战略中的重要一步。除能源生产外，该项目有望带来长期经济收益、强化基础设施建设并支持工业电气化。然而，由于地处脆弱的喜马拉雅生态系统，且会对下游国家产生影响，该项目也引发了关于生态、社会及地缘政治方面的争议。
Global Comparisons: Where Medog Stands
To understand the scale of Medog, compare it with other major hydropower projects:
• Medog Dam, China: 60 GW capacity and ~300 TWh/year.
• Three Gorges Dam, China: previously the world leader at 22.5 GW and ~100 TWh/year.
• Baihetan Dam, China: unveiled in 2021 with 16 GW capacity and ~60 TWh/year.
• Belo Monte Dam, Brazil: ranks among the world’s largest with 11,233 MW and ~15.8 TWh/year, powering around 60 million people.
• Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia: currently Africa’s largest at 1.55 GW capacity and ~16 TWh/year
The Medog project’s capacity will eclipse all existing ones multiple times, transforming the scale of renewable generation globally.
全球对比：墨脱水电站的地位
要理解墨脱水电站的规模，可将其与其他主要水电项目进行对比：
• 中国墨脱水电站：装机容量60吉瓦，年发电量约300太瓦时。
• 中国三峡大坝：曾是全球领先者，装机容量22.5吉瓦，年发电量约100太瓦时。
• 中国白鹤滩水电站：2021年投运，装机容量16吉瓦，年发电量约60太瓦时。
• 巴西美丽山水电站：跻身全球最大水电站之列，装机容量11233兆瓦，年发电量约15.8太瓦时，为约6000万人供电。
• 埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝：目前是非洲最大水电站，装机容量1.55吉瓦，年发电量约16太瓦时。
墨脱水电站的装机容量将数倍于所有现有项目，从而改变全球可再生能源发电的规模。
Strategic and Economic Benefits
The Medog dam is part of China’s strategy to accelerate the energy transition while stimulating regional development.
Supporting Decarbonization: The power generated will replace coal-fired electricity in eastern cities and provide clean energy for data centers and emerging industries.
Massive Economic Impact: With ¥1.2 trillion (≈ $170 billion) in projected investment, the project is expected to create around 200,000 jobs and contribute ¥20 billion annually to Tibet’s fiscal revenue—two-thirds of its 2024 budget.
National Energy Security: The dam will serve as a key node in China’s “West-to-East Electricity Transfer,” stabilizing the grid and enabling large-scale electrification of industries.
战略与经济效益
墨脱水电站是中国加速能源转型与促进区域发展战略的组成部分。
助力脱碳：该水电站产生的电力将替代东部城市的燃煤发电，并为数据中心及新兴产业提供清洁能源。
巨大经济影响：该项目预计投资1.2万亿元人民币（约合1700亿美元），有望创造约20万个就业岗位，每年为西藏财政收入贡献200亿元——相当于其2024年财政预算的三分之二。
国家能源安全：这座水电站将成为中国“西电东送”战略中的关键节点，稳定电网并为工业大规模电气化提供支撑。
Global Significance and Renewable Power Contribution
This project will surpass the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam and Baihetan Dam, reinforcing China’s role as a global leader in renewable energy. With hydropower already accounting for about 15% of global electricity generation, the Medog project significantly expands clean power output at a time when demand for reliable low-carbon energy is soaring worldwide.
Similar mega-dams—such as Brazil’s Belo Monte or Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam—have shown the transformative potential of large-scale hydropower projects. Yet Medog stands out for its unprecedented scale and its integration into China’s broader industrial electrification strategy.
全球意义与可再生能源贡献
该项目的装机容量将超过三峡大坝和白鹤滩水电站，进一步巩固中国作为全球可再生能源领域领导者的地位。目前，水电已占全球发电量的约15%，而在全球对可靠低碳能源的需求激增之际，墨脱项目将大幅提升清洁能源产出。
类似的大型水坝——如巴西的美丽山水坝或埃塞俄比亚的复兴大坝——已展现出大型水电项目的变革潜力。然而，墨脱项目因其前所未有的规模以及与中国更广泛的工业电气化战略的深度融合而显得尤为突出。
Positive Development Outcomes
The dam could bring several benefits:
Flood Control: By regulating water flow, it may reduce the severity of downstream floods, particularly during the monsoon season.
Industrial Development in Tibet: The project is expected to boost infrastructure, logistics, and industrial activity in Tibet, a historically underdeveloped region.
Accelerated Green Growth: Its enormous renewable energy output will support China’s climate goals, helping replace coal and providing clean power for advanced industries.
积极的发展成果
这座水坝可能带来多方面的益处：
防洪：通过调节水流，它或许能减轻下游的洪水灾害，尤其是在季风季节。
西藏的工业发展：该项目有望推动西藏的基础设施、物流及工业活动发展，而西藏在历史上是一个欠发达地区。
加速绿色增长：其巨大的可再生能源产出将为中国的气候目标提供支持，助力替代煤炭能源，并为高端产业提供清洁能源。
Environmental, Social, and Geopolitical Risks
Despite its benefits, the dam presents several challenges:
Ecological Concerns: The site is located in one of the world’s richest biodiversity hotspots, raising risks to local wildlife and fragile ecosystems.
Seismic Risks: The region is prone to earthquakes and landslides, which could pose safety risks during construction and operation.
Geopolitical Tensions: Downstream nations, especially India and Bangladesh, have expressed concerns about water flow and potential flood risks.
环境、社会及地缘政治风险
尽管该水坝具有诸多益处，但也面临一些挑战：
生态担忧：项目选址位于全球生物多样性最丰富的热点地区之一，这对当地野生动物和脆弱的生态系统构成了风险。
地震风险：该地区易发生地震和山体滑坡，可能在施工和运营期间带来安全隐患。
地缘政治紧张：下游国家，尤其是印度和孟加拉国，对水流情况及潜在的洪水风险表达了担忧。
Implications for Global Climate Strategy
The Medog dam is more than an engineering feat—it represents a policy model for infrastructure-driven green growth. By combining massive renewable generation with economic development, it highlights how large-scale projects can support decarbonization and industrial transformation. However, it also underscores the importance of transparent governance, strong ESG frameworks, and cross-border dialogue to ensure that environmental and social risks are properly addressed.
对全球气候战略的启示
墨脱水电站不仅是一项工程壮举，更代表了一种以基础设施驱动绿色增长的政策模式。通过将大规模可再生能源发电与经济发展相结合，它凸显了大型项目在支持脱碳和产业转型方面的作用。然而，这也强调了透明治理、健全的环境、社会和治理（ESG）框架以及跨境对话的重要性，以确保环境和社会风险得到妥善处理。
Conclusion
The Medog Hydropower Station is set to reshape China’s clean energy landscape while boosting economic growth and infrastructure in Tibet. It reflects China’s determination to lead in renewable power deployment at unprecedented scale. As the world accelerates the energy transition, this project shows both the opportunities and responsibilities tied to mega-infrastructure: achieving carbon reduction goals while ensuring environmental and social safeguards.
结论
墨脱水电站有望重塑中国的清洁能源格局，同时推动西藏的经济增长和基础设施建设。它体现了中国在以前所未有的规模部署可再生能源方面的决心。随着全球加速能源转型，该项目既展现了大型基础设施所蕴含的机遇，也凸显了其肩负的责任：在实现碳减排目标的同时，确保落实环境和社会保护措施。
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